First, the FIFA rules on the group stage rankings. Obviously the teams are ranked first by points, then by goal differential. If two (or three) teams are even on both, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, followed by head-to-head (like if one team beat the other). The next three rules pertain mostly to a three way tie and are similar to the previous two, read here on the FIFA website. Lastly, if all is still tied, a name is pulled out of a hat. Yes, in the world's most important sporting event, or event in general, fates can be decided by random chance. Lovely ain't it?
GROUP A--Mexico (4 points, +3 goal differential) v Uruguay (4 pts, +2 GD), France (1 pt, -2 GD) v South Africa (1 pt, -3 GD)
Les Blues and Bafana Bafana are opponents in the same boat; a tie eliminates them both, otherwise they need to win, and win big, by at least four goals. Plus they need Mexico and Uruguay to not tie. If the two teams from the Americas tie they advance for sure, otherwise its going to take a lot of work by either team in the other game.
Prediction: Going out on a limb here, but I'm saying Mexico and Uruguay tie and go on. Hopefully the hosts can end their tournament with a win for the locals, which is plausible considering that at France's rate of self destruction, tomorrow they may field a team of reserves, coaches, and the reanimated corpse of Napoleon.
GROUP B--Argentina (6 pts, +4 GD) v Greece (3 pts, -1 GD), South Korea (3 pts, -1 GD) v Nigeria (0 pts, -2 GD)
Argentina has pretty much qualified. Only real big wins by both Greece and Korea would knock out los Albicelestes. Argentina will be looking to end on a high with a win, and Greece will have trouble even getting a tie. Tomorrow is basically a race between Greece and Korea, and Korea has the advantage of scoring one more goal in the event they both tie plus not having to play Argentina. Nigeria's chances are not too slim, where a two goal win and a Greece loss lets them through.
Prediction: Korea dominated Greece and the scoreline against Argentina didn't reflect how well they played. They should beat or at least tie Nigeria, and Argentina is definitely not showing any mercy against Greece.
GROUP C-- Slovenia (4 pts, +1 GD) v England (2 pts, 0 GD), USA (2 pts, 0 GD) v Algeria (1 pt, -1 GD)
Let's not even get started on how the USA should be leading with four points were it not for dubious referring. However, our destiny is in our hands, and we advance with a win. If we tie, we need Slovenia to win, or for a Slovenia/England tie that scores two less goals than our tie. Algeria advances with a win and England loss/tie or win by more than one goal. If England wins they advance for sure, and Slovenia only needs to get points to advance for sure.
Prediction: The Yanks showed last summer they can beat North African teams (Egypt) and we should win, despite my ill harbored feelings that it's a game we could lose. England needs to finally get it together; they have the quality to smash Slovenia, but so too against us and Algeria. I see USA and England making it to the Round of 16, but anyone in this group can advance.
GROUP D-- Ghana (4 pts, +1 GD) v Germany (3 pts, +3 GD), Serbia (3 pts, 0 GD) v Australia (1 pt, -4 GD)
Ghana should have sealed their fate by beating the 10-man Aussies, but they still advance for sure with a win or tie. Germany will be going all out after feeling they were robbed against Serbia and advance with a win. If both games tie, Germany and Ghana advance. Serbia advances only with a win or a tie and Germany loss. Australia needs a win and Germany loss or they are on a plane back down under.
Prediction: In the World Cup you just can't count out Germany, and I think they definitely will get the job done. Australia could go out with a bang and hold Serbia at bay, other wise the two European teams will get through at the expense of Africa's last real hope.
GROUP E-- Netherlands (6 pts, +3 GD) v Cameroon (0 pts, -2 GD), Japan (3 pts, -1 GD) v Denmark (3 pts, -2 GD)
These two games are entirely independent; Netherlands advances for sure and Cameroon is already eliminated. Its a showdown between the Blue Samurai and Olssen's Eleven where winner takes all. Thanks to goal differential, Japan advances with a tie.
Prediction: Netherlands retains first (duh) and Japan advances. It could go either way, but since Japan has the advantage of being able to tie, odds are in their favor. However, my ESPN bracket hopes the Danes pull it off.
GROUP F--Paraguay (4 pts, +2 GD) v New Zealand (2 pts, 0 GD), Italy (2 pts, 0 GD) v Slovakia (1 pt, -2 GD)
This group reads the same as Group C, just replace Slovenia with Paraguay, England with NZ, USA with Italy and Algeria with Slovakia.
Prediction: New Zealand has two more points than anyone expected but their luck will probably run out as an in-form Paraguay will not take any chances. I wouldn't put it past Italy to sit back for one of their trademark zero-zero draws and try to hit on the counter attack. Paraguay and Italy should go through.
GROUP G--Brasil (6 pts, +3 GD) v Portugal (4 pts, +7 GD), Ivory Coast (1 pt, -2 GD) v North Korea (0 pts, -8 GD)
Brasil is through, but they want first place and to end on a win. Portugal have nearly sealed their spot thanks to the rainy 7-0 drubbing of DPRK. Ivory Coast can only advance with a Portugal loss and a win that makes up a combined 10 goal difference. North Korea's chances at advancing before the tournament were as mythical as the winged horse they're named after, but now they are probable as one of their citizens leaving the country freely.
Prediction: Brasil will make sure they seal first but Portugal should advance just fine. Though Ivory Coast will certainly try to run up the score on the Commie Koreans, which should be fun.
GROUP H-- Chile (6 pts, +2 GD) v Spain (3 pts, +1 GD), Switzerland (3 pts, 0 GD) v Honduras (0 pts, -3 GD)
Honduras is pretty much as good as out, but a result against Switzerland will ruin their hot chocolate party. Spain needs a win if the Swiss win/tie. Chile advances with any points, but are definitely ruing their missed chances against Honduras and Switzerland for goal differential purposes. In the likely event of a Swiss victory, in order for Chile and Spain to go through, Spain must win by one, and Switzerland only by one as well. Chile could then pip the Swiss on goals scored or, if that is tied, head-to-head.
Prediction: Spain will win the offense-heavy battle with Chile in what hopefully will be a high-flying, high scoring affair. Switzerland shouldn't come undone by Honduras and will likely edge out Chile on goal differential. Which is unfortunate because I hate defensive teams and Chile's high-octane style is so entertaining.
Remember, groups are played at the same time for fairness issues. Before the Round of 16 starts our "experts" (and I use that team loosely) will put their reputations on the line and make their picks. Enjoy!
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