Thursday, July 1, 2010

Quarterfinals, Part I

Seven games from now, we will have crowned a new world champion at the 2010 FIFA World Cup from South Africa (eight if you count the consolation match). Only eight teams remain, and South American is strongly represented with a team in each quarterfinal game. Europe's three best teams, the Dutch, the Germans, and the Spaniards, will be trying to halt the Latin America onslaught. (Side note, thinking that France or Italy would be here or that England or Portugal was a European favorite is just ludicrous.) Ghana is still Africa's last hope and certainly wont just lie down.
Tomorrow first game is Brasil v Netherlands in Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. The afternoon features Uruguay and Ghana at Soccer City in Jo'burg.

Brasil v Netherlands:
RGaucho-Brazil over Netherlands 2-1
Brazil's win over Chile was very impressive to me, as it was the first time I was able to fully appreciate Gilberto Silva and his continued stellar play for Brazil protecting the back four. In addition, Lucio and Juan are playing spectacular positional defense, making it seem as if a very dangerous and skilled Chile attack had no chance of scoring. Thus, I'm picking Brazil to beat the Netherlands because of their superior defense. In their previous match, the Dutch allowed several stellar scoring opportunities for the Slovakians, which will come back to haunt them against Fabiano and Brazil. Look for Brazil to soak up a lot of pressure against the fearsome Dutch attack, displeasing joga bonito fans everywhere, but allowing Brazil to defend and score several quick goals, sending Dunga's men into the semis.
cornezinho-Brasil over Netherlands 2-0.
As good as the Dutch have looked, they've no really faced a worth adversary and have yet to spark to life. Waiting until you meet Brasil is not a good time to try and light the fire. Both teams play a 4-2-3-1 with fullbacks flying up the wings, holding midfielders to protect the back line, and one out-and-out striker supported by wingers and a free man beneath him. Brasil only has to worry about Michel Bastos (who plays forward for Lyon) containing the quick-footed Arjen Robben. However, by now everyone HAS to know that Robben is only dangerous when cutting into the left and shooting with his favored foot. Push him wide with the help of Gilberto and make him cross; Lucio and Juan will gobble up the skinny Robin Van Persie. The only thing left to worry about is a moment of brilliance from the mercurial Wesley Sneijder. As mentioned above, the Oranje defense has been porous to teams such as Japan and Slovakia, so how will they handle Robinho, Kaka, and Luis Fabiano? Position by position the Dutch are equaled or over-matched, especially in goal, at right back, and center back, and their attack looks frozen compared to the fluidity of those in the yellow shirts.
Daave-Netherlands over Brazil
The yellow and green completely shut down the middle of the field against Chile. Luckily, the Dutch have a player in Arjen Robben who loves to strike from the wing. I think he'll be the difference maker in this one, especially since he has found his World Cup sea legs. Brazil has been great so far, but there seems to be something missing from this group. This is the quarterfinal match I am most looking forward to.

Uruguay v Ghana
RGaucho-Uruguay over Ghana on penalties
Don't expect too much from this match. By this point, teams are what they are, and what these teams have are terrific defense squads that count on only a couple star players to take advantage of another team's lapses. Unfortunately, I don't think either team will provide the lapses necessary for the other to score. I could look pretty dumb if Johnathan Mensahs yellow card suspension ends up hurting Ghana's defense, but I think they have enough quality to make up for it. And on the other end; as much as it hurts to say, Diego Lugnao and Uruguay have much more quality at the back than the U.S. and simply won't allow Ghana to strike right up the middle. So why Uruguay on pk's? It's just a hunch, or perhaps I'm still remembering their U-20 side wasn't that great at them despite beating Brazil for the championship last summer.
cornezinho-Ghana over Uruguay 2-1
This could be a boring game. Stifling defenses, packed midfielders, and strikers waiting to spring the counter attack. Despite some structure from their Serbian coach, Milovan Rajevac, Ghana is prone to making errors in marking at the back, and when you hand Diego Forlan one of those opportunities he will punish you (unlike Robbie Findley). That being said, Ghana has some solid option going forward. Asamoah Gyan is in good form, Kevin-Prince Boateng will be fit for the game, and Prince Tagoe should be back to start. They are missing Jonathan Mensah and Andre Ayew in the back and middle, respectively, but have plenty of suitable replacements in Lee Addy, Sulley Muntari, and Stephen Appiah. The Black Stars will do just enough things right to be the first African team to reach a World Cup semifinal.
Daave-Uruguay over Ghana
I have been surprised about how passive Ghana has been at times in this tournament. It seems as if they rely to much on the counterattack. That may work against pressing teams with weaker defenses such as the USA and Australia, but Uruguay has only allowed one goal in the tournament and Diego Lugano has been rock solid in the back. The absence of Andre Ayew and Jonathan Mensah (both with suspension) doesn't help.

Come back tomorrow for reviews of Saturday's games

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